WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.66 – 205.23

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.2 ±9.3

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 27.24Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 146Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 66.42Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.7 ±11.2

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 37.6Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 72.89Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 94.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 1732, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4531, 1732, 4786

Auto

50.0 21%

Teleop

136.5 58%

Endgame

48.2 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 1714, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2062, 1714, 1220

Auto

48.0 26%

Teleop

86.1 46%

Endgame

51.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239.7pts

Blue projected score205.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.4
Score range: 181–264
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 662 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.2Season APEX442.7

50Auto48

136.5Teleop86.1

48.2Endgame51.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	60
teleop	193	132
endgame	59	120
foul	15	10
total	340	322

Result

Final score

340 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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