WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.23 – 123.8

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150 ±12.7

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 18.82Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 14.33Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2077Laser Robotics

Season APEX 43.1Event APEX 45.08Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.6 ±12.2

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 27.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10522Sun Prairie Robotics (SPR)

Season APEX 80Event APEX 36.92Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 59.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7103, 3692, 2077

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7103, 3692, 2077

Auto

8.3 11%

Teleop

37.8 51%

Endgame

28.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9760, 10522, 1675

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 10522, 1675

Auto

30.1 24%

Teleop

77.7 61%

Endgame

18.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.2pts

Blue projected score123.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.6
Score range: 53–149
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150Season APEX216.6

8.3Auto30.1

37.8Teleop77.7

28.5Endgame18.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	28	74
endgame	18	15
foul	35	5
total	95	117

Result

Final score

95 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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