WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.1 – 117.55

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.3 ±13.9

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX -4.02Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10430Solar Chill

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 39.64Rank 36Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 24.48Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.8 ±12.8

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 36.83Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6166Thorobotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 28.24Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 52.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8802, 10430, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8802, 10430, 5096

Auto

14.5 22%

Teleop

42.3 65%

Endgame

8.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10287, 6166, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10287, 6166, 2202

Auto

21.5 18%

Teleop

73.5 61%

Endgame

25.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.1pts

Blue projected score117.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.4
Score range: 34–144
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 143.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.3Season APEX225.8

14.5Auto21.5

42.3Teleop73.5

8.4Endgame25.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	34
teleop	1	53
endgame	0	38
foul	0	0
total	33	125

Result

Final score

33 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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