WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.48 – 91.46

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

88 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 10.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±10.5

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 41.83Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX -1.79Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 30.44Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.6 ±10.5

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 52.11Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 12.27Rank 27Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 27.08Rank 29Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5148, 537, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5148, 537, 7915

Auto

18.5 27%

Teleop

44.8 65%

Endgame

5.7 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 8531, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 8531, 5586

Auto

13.7 14%

Teleop

55.9 58%

Endgame

27.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.5pts

Blue projected score91.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21
Score range: 43–118
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 148.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.3Season APEX315.6

18.5Auto13.7

44.8Teleop55.9

5.7Endgame27.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	14
teleop	35	42
endgame	16	32
foul	10	0
total	88	88

Result

Final score

88 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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