WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

321 – 120.07

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

401 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.6 ±11.2

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 105Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 58.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 157.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.7 ±11.7

3692Rock N' Robotics

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 19.65Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 71.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 28.74Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 93, 1220, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

321 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 93, 1220, 1732

Auto

71.3 23%

Teleop

163.7 53%

Endgame

73.7 24%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3692, 6381, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3692, 6381, 8701

Auto

16.0 15%

Teleop

63.0 57%

Endgame

30.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score321pts

Blue projected score120.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.9
Score range: 91–350
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 513 vs event baseline 162.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.6Season APEX222.7

71.3Auto16

163.7Teleop63

73.7Endgame30.8

1Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	12
teleop	220	60
endgame	107	40
foul	0	0
total	401	112

Result

Final score

401 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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