WIN District Mukwonago Event presented by Regal Rexnord

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

350.85 – 265.64

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.2 ±9.3

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 161.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 32.69Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 156.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.6 ±9.9

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 43.42Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 112Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 110.22Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 7900, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1732, 7900, 1714

Auto

69.7 21%

Teleop

193.3 58%

Endgame

72.9 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 7915, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3596, 7915, 4786

Auto

49.2 19%

Teleop

151.5 59%

Endgame

58.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score350.9pts

Blue projected score265.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample176alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.2
Score range: 237–380
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.2Season APEX460.6

69.7Auto49.2

193.3Teleop151.5

72.9Endgame58

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	67
teleop	100	112
endgame	30	50
foul	45	5
total	268	234

Result

Final score

268 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Match videos

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