Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.46 – 177.59

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±11.7

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 14.53Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 68Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 36.93Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 58.89Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 59.21Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 59.49Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1091, 1792, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1091, 1792, 1220

Auto

37.8 32%

Teleop

59.4 50%

Endgame

22.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 93, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2062, 93, 2202

Auto

29.2 17%

Teleop

95.4 55%

Endgame

47.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score177.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.1
Score range: 89–208
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 166.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.3Season APEX368.8

37.8Auto29.2

59.4Teleop95.4

22.4Endgame47.6

90Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	14
teleop	31	43
endgame	29	65
foul	0	0
total	128	122

Result

Final score

128 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 pts

Match videos

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