Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.32 – 187.48

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±11.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 43.39Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 148.72Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 167.21Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547.6 ±9.3

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 36.75Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 56.75Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 93.98Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6643, 6574, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.3 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 6574, 1732

Auto

92.6 26%

Teleop

188.6 53%

Endgame

73.1 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 1259, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 1259, 930

Auto

44.0 24%

Teleop

116.5 63%

Endgame

25.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score359.3pts

Blue projected score187.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.8
Score range: 157–389
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462Season APEX547.6

92.6Auto44

188.6Teleop116.5

73.1Endgame25

13Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	54
teleop	193	122
endgame	53	73
foul	0	0
total	302	249

Result

Final score

302 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts

Match videos

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