Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.4 – 125.39

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±10.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 23.45Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 198.26Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 157.69Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±11.7

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 16.7Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 69.62Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 39.07Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 1306, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.4 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 1306, 1714

Auto

60.4 16%

Teleop

224.4 61%

Endgame

84.5 23%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1091, 1792, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1091, 1792, 1220

Auto

30.7 24%

Teleop

70.3 55%

Endgame

26.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score379.4pts

Blue projected score125.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254
Score range: 96–408
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.8Season APEX384.3

60.4Auto30.7

224.4Teleop70.3

84.5Endgame26.1

0Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	68
teleop	301	19
endgame	78	6
foul	0	5
total	452	98

Result

Final score

452 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Match videos

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