Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.09 – 173.94

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±11

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 51.59Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 48.79Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 3.71Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 57.94Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 56.62Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 59.38Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7900, 6318, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7900, 6318, 8701

Auto

16.4 16%

Teleop

54.8 53%

Endgame

32.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 93, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2062, 93, 2202

Auto

31.1 18%

Teleop

94.6 55%

Endgame

44.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score104.1pts

Blue projected score173.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.8
Score range: 75–203
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.6Season APEX368.8

16.4Auto31.1

54.8Teleop94.6

32Endgame44.9

16Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	23
teleop	19	95
endgame	2	58
foul	0	15
total	36	191

Result

Final score

36 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Match videos

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