Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.02 – 99.2

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±40.9

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 1.79Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 29.61Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 25.62Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160 ±40.9

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 49.65Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 28.22Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.33Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6223, 2826, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6223, 2826, 9992

Auto

15.2 28%

Teleop

6.2 11%

Endgame

33.3 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 10909, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 706, 10909, 9993

Auto

33.6 37%

Teleop

46.2 50%

Endgame

12.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score99.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 27–129
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX160

15.2Auto33.6

6.2Teleop46.2

33.3Endgame12

64Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	5	27
endgame	13	4
foul	0	0
total	32	57

Result

Final score

32 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Match videos

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