Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.5 – 170.52

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.6 ±9.3

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 35.89Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 54.23Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 91.38Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±10.4

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 57.04Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 55.59Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 57.89Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 1259, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 1259, 930

Auto

41.3 23%

Teleop

114.4 64%

Endgame

23.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 93, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2062, 93, 2202

Auto

33.9 20%

Teleop

87.3 52%

Endgame

45.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score181.5pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11
Score range: 141–212
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 164.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.6Season APEX368.8

41.3Auto33.9

114.4Teleop87.3

23.6Endgame45.1

15Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	21
teleop	129	121
endgame	25	43
foul	0	0
total	208	185

Result

Final score

208 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Match videos

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