Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.04 – 120.68

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±11.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 39.3Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 143.77Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 161.97Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±11

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 58.1Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 53.27Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 9.31Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6643, 6574, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 6574, 1732

Auto

92.4 27%

Teleop

180.1 52%

Endgame

70.9 21%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7900, 6318, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7900, 6318, 8701

Auto

18.2 15%

Teleop

67.1 56%

Endgame

34.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score345pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.4
Score range: 92–374
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 163.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462Season APEX188.6

92.4Auto18.2

180.1Teleop67.1

70.9Endgame34

22Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	10
teleop	214	19
endgame	74	25
foul	15	0
total	398	54

Result

Final score

398 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Match videos

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