Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.71 – 144.52

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±11.7

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 9.29Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 66.64Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 33.78Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160 ±40.9

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 54.7Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 32.39Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.43Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1091, 1792, 1220

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1091, 1792, 1220

Auto

31.0 28%

Teleop

55.2 49%

Endgame

25.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 10909, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 706, 10909, 9990

Auto

43.7 31%

Teleop

68.9 49%

Endgame

26.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score109.7pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 80–175
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.3Season APEX160

31Auto43.7

55.2Teleop68.9

25.4Endgame26.6

86Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	18
teleop	115	42
endgame	23	14
foul	0	15
total	163	89

Result

Final score

163 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 54.4 pts

Match videos

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