Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.91 – 64.33

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±10.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 18.06Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 192.42Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 149.43Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±40.9

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 3.74Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 31.2Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 29.39Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 1306, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.9 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 1306, 1714

Auto

56.4 16%

Teleop

207.9 60%

Endgame

81.9 24%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 2826, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6223, 2826, 9992

Auto

11.9 20%

Teleop

10.3 17%

Endgame

38.4 63%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score359.9pts

Blue projected score64.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 295.6
Score range: 35–389
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 162.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.8Season APEX309.6

56.4Auto11.9

207.9Teleop10.3

81.9Endgame38.4

9Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	23
teleop	282	2
endgame	90	17
foul	0	0
total	443	42

Result

Final score

443 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Match videos

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