Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.13 – 173.76

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.6 ±40.8

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.55Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 140.19Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 164.49Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547.6 ±9.3

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 32.39Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 50.74Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 90.63Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 6574, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 6574, 1732

Auto

81.2 28%

Teleop

147.9 50%

Endgame

64.5 22%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 1259, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 1259, 930

Auto

42.4 25%

Teleop

100.2 58%

Endgame

29.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score299.1pts

Blue projected score173.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.4
Score range: 144–329
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.6Season APEX547.6

81.2Auto42.4

147.9Teleop100.2

64.5Endgame29.8

17Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	13
teleop	123	28
endgame	88	18
foul	0	15
total	282	74

Result

Final score

282 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Match videos

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