Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
185.78 – 120.45
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
95 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 36.37Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 54.63Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 94.78Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 14.24Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 67.45Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 38.76Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6381, 1259, 930
65
/ 100 compatProjected
185.8 pts
~2.0 RP (offseason)
Teams: 6381, 1259, 930
Auto
43.0 23%
Teleop
108.2 59%
Endgame
33.0 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1091, 1792, 1220
53
/ 100 compatProjected
120.5 pts
~1.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 1091, 1792, 1220
Auto
42.6 35%
Teleop
55.3 46%
Endgame
22.4 19%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.16
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score185.8pts
Blue projected score120.5pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample128alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 65.3
- Score range
- 90–216
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
547.6Season APEX384.3
43Auto42.6
108.2Teleop55.3
33Endgame22.4
19Consistency95
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 26 |
| teleop | 48 | 16 |
| endgame | 9 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 95 | 63 |
Result
Final score
95 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts
Match videos
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