Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.81 – 188.42

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

571 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 127.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.8 ±10.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 28.54Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 203.02Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 163.25Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±41.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 40.11Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 3.04Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 145.27Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 1306, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.8 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 1306, 1714

Auto

62.6 16%

Teleop

241.1 62%

Endgame

82.7 21%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 9991, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 9991, 6574

Auto

43.9 24%

Teleop

101.9 57%

Endgame

34.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score394.8pts

Blue projected score188.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.4
Score range: 158–425
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.8Season APEX181.6

62.6Auto43.9

241.1Teleop101.9

82.7Endgame34

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	44
teleop	342	28
endgame	138	37
foul	0	0
total	571	109

Result

Final score

571 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 127.8 pts

Match videos

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