Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.58 – 91.11

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.6 ±9.3

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 40.94Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 60.36Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 98.28Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160 ±40.9

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 46.64Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 26.73Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 17.74Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 1259, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 1259, 930

Auto

46.1 23%

Teleop

118.0 60%

Endgame

33.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 10909, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 706, 10909, 9993

Auto

31.1 36%

Teleop

43.4 51%

Endgame

10.8 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score199.6pts

Blue projected score91.1pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.5
Score range: 61–230
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 165.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.6Season APEX160

46.1Auto31.1

118Teleop43.4

33.8Endgame10.8

16Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	16
teleop	63	32
endgame	34	25
foul	0	0
total	125	73

Result

Final score

125 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Match videos

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