Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.43 – 127.27

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.3 ±40.6

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.15Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 106.03Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 59.25Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±41.1

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.88Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 9.36Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 106.03Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9993, 1714, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 1714, 1732

Auto

42.1 24%

Teleop

88.8 51%

Endgame

44.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 5096, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 5096, 930

Auto

25.1 20%

Teleop

69.8 55%

Endgame

33.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score174.4pts

Blue projected score127.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 97–204
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.3Season APEX302.3

42.1Auto25.1

88.8Teleop69.8

44.2Endgame33

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	41
teleop	167	56
endgame	34	35
foul	0	15
total	264	147

Result

Final score

264 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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