Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.31 – 139.67

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.3 ±9.3

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 47.87Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 70.07Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 3.37Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.3 ±12.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 34.98Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 56.93Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 47.76Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 1792, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1259, 1792, 8701

Auto

36.0 30%

Teleop

66.4 56%

Endgame

17.2 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 2062, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 2062, 6318

Auto

15.3 11%

Teleop

78.1 57%

Endgame

43.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.3pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.4
Score range: 91–170
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.3Season APEX222.3

36Auto15.3

66.4Teleop78.1

17.2Endgame43.2

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	13
teleop	83	73
endgame	8	39
foul	0	0
total	144	125

Result

Final score

144 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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