Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.08 – 88.68

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.8 ±9.3

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 130.11Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 88.31Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 152.66Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 43.3 ±57

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 21.11Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57.66Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 9.91Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 930, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6574, 930, 1714

Auto

82.6 23%

Teleop

199.9 55%

Endgame

77.9 22%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 9990, 1091

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 9990, 1091

Auto

18.1 21%

Teleop

51.0 59%

Endgame

17.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score371.1pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 282.4
Score range: 59–401
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 451 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.8Season APEX43.3

82.6Auto18.1

199.9Teleop51

77.9Endgame17

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	14
teleop	235	38
endgame	64	12
foul	0	0
total	387	64

Result

Final score

387 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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