Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.06 – 190.66

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 111.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.6 ±11

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 43.61Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 68Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 19.45Rank 28Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.8 ±40.8

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 126.98Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 10.72Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 52.96Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6381, 7900, 8531

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 7900, 8531

Auto

24.0 19%

Teleop

74.5 58%

Endgame

28.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6574, 9993, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6574, 9993, 1792

Auto

65.8 35%

Teleop

117.0 62%

Endgame

7.2 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score131.1pts

Blue projected score190.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.6
Score range: 102–220
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.6Season APEX357.8

24Auto65.8

74.5Teleop117

28.9Endgame7.2

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	61
teleop	50	187
endgame	3	83
foul	0	15
total	64	346

Result

Final score

64 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 111.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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