Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 256.18

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207 ±11.6

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -0.49Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 5.67Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -21.33Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.4 ±9.3

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 52.23Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 150.47Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 53.48Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6223, 1091, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

-16.1 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6223, 1091, 3596

Auto

-6.7 48%

Teleop

-27.0 100%

Endgame

19.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 1714, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 706, 1714, 1259

Auto

69.3 27%

Teleop

139.1 55%

Endgame

46.6 18%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score-16.1pts

Blue projected score256.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -256.2
Score range: -29–285
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207Season APEX506.4

-6.7Auto69.3

-27Teleop139.1

19.6Endgame46.6

62Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	9	161
endgame	5	64
foul	0	45
total	24	290

Result

Final score

24 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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