Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.8 – 154.9

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±40.8

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.95Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 180.61Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 38.24Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.5 ±11.2

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 76.77Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 33.08Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 45.05Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 1306, 2062

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 1306, 2062

Auto

43.5 17%

Teleop

160.8 62%

Endgame

54.7 21%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 2826, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 2826, 6643

Auto

36.9 25%

Teleop

83.4 55%

Endgame

30.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score261.8pts

Blue projected score154.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.9
Score range: 127–290
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.6Season APEX530.5

43.5Auto36.9

160.8Teleop83.4

54.7Endgame30.2

37Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	44
teleop	246	69
endgame	93	60
foul	30	0
total	428	173

Result

Final score

428 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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