Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.26 – 113.91

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

94 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.1 ±41.6

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.86Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 38.37Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 20.03Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.6 ±11.7

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 59.99Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 21.04Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 32.88Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 1220, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 1220, 11258

Auto

21.8 24%

Teleop

31.7 35%

Endgame

38.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 93, 8701, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 93, 8701, 5096

Auto

28.5 27%

Teleop

68.4 64%

Endgame

10.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score91.3pts

Blue projected score113.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 62–143
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.1Season APEX247.6

21.8Auto28.5

31.7Teleop68.4

38.2Endgame10.4

60Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	12
teleop	29	40
endgame	19	40
foul	30	0
total	94	92

Result

Final score

94 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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