Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.59 – 80.53

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.9 ±11

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 6.21Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 50.52Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 59.86Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.5 ±41

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.24Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 36.43Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 34.86Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1091, 706, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1091, 706, 2202

Auto

45.8 39%

Teleop

54.5 46%

Endgame

17.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 6318, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 6318, 10909

Auto

11.6 14%

Teleop

61.7 76%

Endgame

7.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score80.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.1
Score range: 52–146
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.9Season APEX97.5

45.8Auto11.6

54.5Teleop61.7

17.8Endgame7.9

58Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	26
teleop	75	43
endgame	47	31
foul	0	15
total	153	115

Result

Final score

153 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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