Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.13 – 95.42

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 79.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.5 ±11.7

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 71.39Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 127.32Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 46.42Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.9 ±40.9

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -32.5Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -6.51Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 134.43Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7900, 6574, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7900, 6574, 6643

Auto

55.2 22%

Teleop

149.8 61%

Endgame

42.3 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3596, 9991, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3596, 9991, 1732

Auto

38.9 45%

Teleop

36.3 42%

Endgame

10.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score245.1pts

Blue projected score95.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.7
Score range: 67–273
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.5Season APEX349.9

55.2Auto38.9

149.8Teleop36.3

42.3Endgame10.6

1Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	60
teleop	102	72
endgame	47	118
foul	30	0
total	241	250

Result

Final score

241 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 79.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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