Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.43 – 248.74

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±9.8

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -0.22Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 22.59Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 76.06Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±10.7

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 45.31Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 177.74Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 25.69Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6223, 8701, 930

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6223, 8701, 930

Auto

16.9 17%

Teleop

38.4 40%

Endgame

41.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 1306, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1792, 1306, 5096

Auto

59.8 25%

Teleop

140.5 58%

Endgame

40.8 17%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score98.4pts

Blue projected score248.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.3
Score range: 70–277
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.1Season APEX557.4

16.9Auto59.8

38.4Teleop140.5

41.3Endgame40.8

7Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	56
teleop	58	244
endgame	22	24
foul	0	0
total	109	324

Result

Final score

109 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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