Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.1 – 111.34

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.5 ±9.8

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 78.72Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 53.38Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 173Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.5 ±11

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 33.62Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 56.75Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 20.97Rank 28Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2202, 10909, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2202, 10909, 1714

Auto

53.0 18%

Teleop

156.0 53%

Endgame

86.7 29%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 93, 8531

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2062, 93, 8531

Auto

24.8 23%

Teleop

55.2 50%

Endgame

30.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score305.1pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.8
Score range: 83–333
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.5Season APEX298.5

53Auto24.8

156Teleop55.2

86.7Endgame30.2

18Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	33
teleop	70	66
endgame	24	18
foul	0	15
total	142	132

Result

Final score

142 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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