Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.5 – 132.71

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.1 ±40.6

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 168.08Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -11.8Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 173.22Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±12.8

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 56.14Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 24.26Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 52.31Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1306, 9991, 1714

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1306, 9991, 1714

Auto

57.3 17%

Teleop

185.5 57%

Endgame

85.0 26%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 5096, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 5096, 6643

Auto

28.6 22%

Teleop

97.0 75%

Endgame

4.2 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score329.5pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.8
Score range: 104–359
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.1Season APEX230.4

57.3Auto28.6

185.5Teleop97

85Endgame4.2

48Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	16
teleop	173	71
endgame	61	30
foul	45	0
total	337	117

Result

Final score

337 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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