Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.63 – 129.39

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 95.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.9 ±10.4

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 37.53Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 51.07Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -25.97Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.7 ±11.7

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 74.63Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 34.38Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 20.38Rank 28Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 93, 7900, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 93, 7900, 6223

Auto

9.7 16%

Teleop

25.3 41%

Endgame

26.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 930, 11258, 8531

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 11258, 8531

Auto

30.3 23%

Teleop

76.4 58%

Endgame

24.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score62.6pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.8
Score range: 34–158
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 159.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.9Season APEX354.7

9.7Auto30.3

25.3Teleop76.4

26.9Endgame24.1

51Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	39
teleop	114	33
endgame	86	39
foul	0	0
total	235	111

Result

Final score

235 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 95.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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