Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.55 – 286.1

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 98.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±11.7

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 59.82Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 25.85Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 35.88Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.4 ±9.8

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 110.34Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 143.89Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 31.87Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 5096, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1259, 5096, 6318

Auto

31.8 28%

Teleop

72.2 64%

Endgame

8.9 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6574, 1306, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6574, 1306, 10909

Auto

70.3 25%

Teleop

163.3 58%

Endgame

47.0 17%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.6pts

Blue projected score286.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.5
Score range: 94–314
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX439.4

31.8Auto70.3

72.2Teleop163.3

8.9Endgame47

23Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	85
teleop	98	289
endgame	26	93
foul	0	0
total	138	467

Result

Final score

138 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 98.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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