Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.42 – 122.66

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.5 ±40.8

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -1.69Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 59.25Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 25.86Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.4 ±41.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 56.46Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 71.6Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -5.4Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9993, 930, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 930, 93

Auto

30.9 38%

Teleop

50.6 62%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 706, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 706, 9991

Auto

55.2 45%

Teleop

66.5 55%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score83.4pts

Blue projected score122.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.2
Score range: 55–151
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.5Season APEX159.4

30.9Auto55.2

50.6Teleop66.5

-0.1Endgame0.1

46Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	23
teleop	140	66
endgame	2	20
foul	5	0
total	197	109

Result

Final score

197 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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