Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.29 – 102.56

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 120.2 ±41.4

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -42Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 47.63Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 44.66Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.9 ±40.9

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.95Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 63.57Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 18.04Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3596, 11258, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3596, 11258, 9990

Auto

12.5 23%

Teleop

20.1 37%

Endgame

21.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1091, 9992, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1091, 9992, 1792

Auto

22.9 23%

Teleop

38.1 38%

Endgame

38.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score50.3pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.3
Score range: 22–131
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 156.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

120.2Season APEX287.9

12.5Auto22.9

20.1Teleop38.1

21.5Endgame38.4

63Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	52
teleop	12	41
endgame	0	15
foul	0	0
total	17	108

Result

Final score

17 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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