Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.75 – 183.53

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±11.2

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 189.34Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 56Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -11.59Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.9 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 55.16Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 81.62Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 46.75Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1714, 1220, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1714, 1220, 6223

Auto

29.3 13%

Teleop

127.3 55%

Endgame

74.7 32%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2826, 2202, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.5 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2826, 2202, 7900

Auto

24.4 14%

Teleop

103.2 58%

Endgame

49.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score233.8pts

Blue projected score183.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.2
Score range: 156–262
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.5Season APEX426.9

29.3Auto24.4

127.3Teleop103.2

74.7Endgame49.4

78Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	50	92
endgame	115	55
foul	0	0
total	183	173

Result

Final score

183 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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