Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.48 – 218.07

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.3 ±10.5

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 15.87Rank 28Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 70.07Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 29.54Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.6 ±10.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 17.56Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 47.87Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 152.64Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8531, 1792, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8531, 1792, 2826

Auto

38.4 33%

Teleop

59.4 52%

Endgame

16.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11258, 1259, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 1259, 1732

Auto

51.6 23%

Teleop

115.6 53%

Endgame

52.7 24%

Strengths

· 1732 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score218.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.6
Score range: 85–248
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.3Season APEX525.6

38.4Auto51.6

59.4Teleop115.6

16.9Endgame52.7

65Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	74
teleop	83	126
endgame	37	88
foul	0	0
total	129	288

Result

Final score

129 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 41.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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