Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.08 – 61.9

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.7 ±12.4

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 63.79Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 29.36Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 64.93Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.8 ±56.9

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -13.23Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 57Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 18.13Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6643, 1792, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6643, 1792, 11258

Auto

45.2 28%

Teleop

86.7 53%

Endgame

30.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 9992, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9992, 93

Auto

15.5 26%

Teleop

18.4 31%

Endgame

25.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score158.1pts

Blue projected score61.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.2
Score range: 34–186
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.7Season APEX115.8

45.2Auto15.5

86.7Teleop18.4

30.4Endgame25.3

0Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	18	45
endgame	26	7
foul	0	15
total	66	100

Result

Final score

66 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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