Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.3 – 224.53

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.6 ±10.5

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 68.25Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 53.76Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -54.71Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±40.9

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 36.49Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 50.57Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 137.47Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 6381, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 930, 6381, 3596

Auto

24.5 34%

Teleop

53.0 73%

Endgame

-4.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8701, 9990, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8701, 9990, 6574

Auto

53.6 24%

Teleop

129.5 57%

Endgame

42.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score67.3pts

Blue projected score224.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157.2
Score range: 38–254
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.6Season APEX189.4

24.5Auto53.6

53Teleop129.5

-4.5Endgame42.3

58Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	43
teleop	25	78
endgame	23	18
foul	30	5
total	94	144

Result

Final score

94 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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