Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.96 – 266.99

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 50.17Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 11.51Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 51.28Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.3 ±10.5

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 187.57Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 44.65Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 34.77Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 10909, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2826, 10909, 8701

Auto

17.7 16%

Teleop

59.5 53%

Endgame

34.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 7900, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

267 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1714, 7900, 6318

Auto

47.4 18%

Teleop

164.1 61%

Endgame

59.1 22%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score113pts

Blue projected score267pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154
Score range: 85–295
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.6Season APEX333.3

17.7Auto47.4

59.5Teleop164.1

34.3Endgame59.1

84Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	18
teleop	53	134
endgame	43	90
foul	15	15
total	131	257

Result

Final score

131 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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