Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.08 – 257.75

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.8 ±41.1

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 133.13Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 60.24Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.71Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.6 ±10.4

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 94.22Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 35.72Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 127.81Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 6643, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1732, 6643, 9992

Auto

61.0 25%

Teleop

117.2 48%

Endgame

63.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2202, 93, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2202, 93, 6574

Auto

38.1 15%

Teleop

178.9 70%

Endgame

38.9 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score246.1pts

Blue projected score257.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 218–286
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.8Season APEX356.6

61Auto38.1

117.2Teleop178.9

63.7Endgame38.9

54Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	62
teleop	158	55
endgame	32	36
foul	0	5
total	258	158

Result

Final score

258 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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