Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.49 – 2.31

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.2 ±9.9

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -23.83Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 67.19Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 162.13Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.5 ±41

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -11.43Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 29.42Rank 28Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -15.68Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3596, 1259, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3596, 1259, 1306

Auto

55.8 28%

Teleop

133.1 66%

Endgame

14.0 7%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 8531, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6223, 8531, 9993

Auto

-13.6 100%

Teleop

17.9 0%

Endgame

-4.3 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score205.5pts

Blue projected score2.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.2
Score range: -27–234
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.2Season APEX151.5

55.8Auto-13.6

133.1Teleop17.9

14Endgame-4.3

103Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	15
teleop	72	0
endgame	1	0
foul	0	0
total	122	15

Result

Final score

122 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 48.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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