Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.48 – 209.83

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 144.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±12.8

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 66.28Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 48.52Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 78.68Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.3 ±40.8

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 16.98Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 167.98Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 24.87Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7900, 5096, 11258

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7900, 5096, 11258

Auto

39.9 21%

Teleop

94.1 50%

Endgame

55.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6381, 1714, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6381, 1714, 9990

Auto

54.7 26%

Teleop

124.4 59%

Endgame

32.9 16%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score193.5pts

Blue projected score209.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 165–238
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 156.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX327.3

39.9Auto54.7

94.1Teleop124.4

55.2Endgame32.9

3Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	60
teleop	18	208
endgame	5	91
foul	0	0
total	53	359

Result

Final score

53 – 359

Prediction correct · off by 144.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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