Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.44 – 249.33

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 594 ±9.3

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 28.3Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 117.9Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 38.24Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.9 ±10.5

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 169.74Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 51.31Rank 20Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 28.28Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10909, 1732, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10909, 1732, 1792

Auto

54.9 29%

Teleop

84.5 45%

Endgame

48.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1306, 2826, 1091

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.3 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1306, 2826, 1091

Auto

32.4 13%

Teleop

158.8 64%

Endgame

55.8 23%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score184.4pts

Blue projected score249.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.9
Score range: 156–277
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

594Season APEX515.9

54.9Auto32.4

84.5Teleop158.8

48.2Endgame55.8

150Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	45
teleop	70	103
endgame	17	41
foul	0	0
total	169	189

Result

Final score

169 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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