Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.79 – 97.97

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 104.7 ±41

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 3.37Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 47.76Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -6.34Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.4 ±11.7

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 35.22Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 1.72Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 61.03Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 6318, 9991

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8701, 6318, 9991

Auto

6.2 14%

Teleop

20.4 46%

Endgame

17.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5096, 6223, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5096, 6223, 2202

Auto

14.2 14%

Teleop

50.2 51%

Endgame

34.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score44.8pts

Blue projected score98pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.2
Score range: 15–128
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

104.7Season APEX277.4

6.2Auto14.2

20.4Teleop50.2

17.3Endgame34.2

16Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	8
teleop	29	48
endgame	19	42
foul	0	0
total	54	98

Result

Final score

54 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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