Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.57 – 197.97

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±41.2

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 43.75Rank 11Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 83.52Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 0.3Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±41

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.14Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

8531TermiKnightors

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 23.2Rank 28Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 135.63Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9990, 6643, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 6643, 6223

Auto

31.5 24%

Teleop

68.1 53%

Endgame

29.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9992, 8531, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

198 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 8531, 6574

Auto

36.4 18%

Teleop

124.6 63%

Endgame

37.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score198pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.4
Score range: 99–227
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.6Season APEX170.5

31.5Auto36.4

68.1Teleop124.6

29.9Endgame37.3

139Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	40
teleop	15	124
endgame	8	44
foul	0	15
total	35	223

Result

Final score

35 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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