Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.44 – 182.44

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 50.7 ±57.1

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 7.22Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 89.82Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.4Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.5 ±9.8

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 148.11Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 7.59Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 26.74Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9991, 11258, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 11258, 9993

Auto

17.5 18%

Teleop

40.5 41%

Endgame

40.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 2062, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1714, 2062, 8701

Auto

34.4 19%

Teleop

99.0 54%

Endgame

49.0 27%

Strengths

· 1714 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score103.4pts

Blue projected score182.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79
Score range: 74–211
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

50.7Season APEX422.5

17.5Auto34.4

40.5Teleop99

40.6Endgame49

49Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	53
teleop	6	117
endgame	11	78
foul	0	0
total	20	248

Result

Final score

20 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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