Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.97 – 174.14

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.5 ±9.8

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 46.9Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 17.58Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 55.49Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427 ±11.2

1220Rockhoppers - Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 34.8Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 80.02Rank 17Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 59.32Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 6381, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1259, 6381, 2202

Auto

44.0 36%

Teleop

86.4 70%

Endgame

-7.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1220, 930, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1220, 930, 7900

Auto

39.4 23%

Teleop

96.2 56%

Endgame

36.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score120pts

Blue projected score174.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.2
Score range: 91–203
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 163.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.5Season APEX427

44Auto39.4

86.4Teleop96.2

-7.4Endgame36.2

3Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	51
teleop	137	106
endgame	30	20
foul	0	0
total	187	177

Result

Final score

187 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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