Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.93 – 68.59

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.9 ±10.7

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 25.29Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 117.88Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 67.76Rank 21Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±10.4

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX -13.95Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 19.18Rank 26Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 63.36Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 1714, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1792, 1714, 6643

Auto

43.1 20%

Teleop

153.1 72%

Endgame

15.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 10909, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6223, 10909, 706

Auto

18.9 26%

Teleop

27.5 38%

Endgame

26.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score210.9pts

Blue projected score68.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.3
Score range: 40–240
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 158.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.9Season APEX254.2

43.1Auto18.9

153.1Teleop27.5

15.7Endgame26.9

46Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	42
teleop	171	51
endgame	88	28
foul	0	5
total	339	126

Result

Final score

339 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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