Mukwonago Robotics Offseason Competition

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.06 – 86.5

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.3 ±11.7

11258Honey Badgers

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 97.67Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 127.76Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 36.63Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.5 ±11

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 32.71Rank 22Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 65.06Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3596Rocket Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -11.27Rank 29Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11258, 6574, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11258, 6574, 6381

Auto

59.1 23%

Teleop

147.3 57%

Endgame

54.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2062, 2202, 3596

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2062, 2202, 3596

Auto

-3.3 0%

Teleop

53.0 61%

Endgame

37.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score262.1pts

Blue projected score86.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample128alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.6
Score range: 59–290
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.3Season APEX322.5

59.1Auto-3.3

147.3Teleop53

54.2Endgame37

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	14
teleop	161	40
endgame	27	18
foul	0	0
total	246	72

Result

Final score

246 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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